·主导一切迷信学科。“日本迷信技能复兴机构”( Japan Science and Technology Agency)表现，中国曾经是八个中心迷信范畴中最有影响力的国度，与美国并列。中国在盘算机迷信、数学、资料迷信和工程范畴排名第一，而美国在物理、情况和地球迷信、根底生命迷信和临床医学方面抢先---但中国在物理学方面正在敏捷追逐(中国斥资六十亿美元制作了天下上最大的粒子减速器，这将使它在粒子物理学方面处于抢先位置)。十年前，中国在这些学科中完全没有抢先，但以现在的速率，它将在不到13年的工夫内主导一切这些学科。
Nov 28 · 28 upvotes
I don’t think the US will exist anymore in 2040, which means that the US$ will not be around as a reserve currency.
Instead, the US will fracture into smaller mini-states, each with its radically different politics.
Basically, the US experiment will end spectacularly.
Hoang Nghiem (严黄)：
Nov 28 · 4 upvotes
I didn’t think the US was really that fragile was it? I’m curious as to why the Americans would intentionally self-fracture themselves into many smaller nation states.
US unity depends on the American people; the US is the real People’s Republic.
That unity is gone.
It is like a bad marriage; both sides hate each other, but no one wants to be the first asking for a divorce.
Hoang Nghiem (严黄)：
Paul, you’re referring to the current social divide between conservatives and liberals right?
Americans have always believed this myth that American society is classless. However, following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the whole society is dividing along economic class lines.
It is going to split into so many pieces, and it will be impossible to put it back together unless the US produces a leader like Mao.
There’s nothing like a war to stir up patriotism and unite the people. Recall how popular Bush was when Iraq was invaded? Based on false pretense or not, the country was united and his approval rating shot to the 90% range.
More Chinese nationalist pep rally mentality. Its just your wet dream. People have been betting against the US for a long time.
As someone who lives in the US I can say with a fair degree of accuracy that the US is NOT going to break apart any time soon! I know that we may seem devided, but the truth is that most of us simply don't care that much about politics! You have to realize that only about 130 million people even bothered to vote in our last election! That's out of a population of over 300 million! Unless there is a major economic meltdown most of us are just busy living our lives and not worrying about politics! I know it's sad, but that's just the way it is!
Hoang Nghiem (严黄)：
Yep, I agree Josh, it’s why I had to ask Paul to clarify and justify himself. Things may look bad now with “the Donald” in the White House, but the US is still doing pretty well for itself I think!
Normally I would say you are right, but this really depends on how badly the quality of life deteriorates for the middle class. Most people don’t care about politics, but they do care about their own quality of life.
Give how national policies of the US has made basic cost of living + healthcare + education so prohibitively expensive for average Americans, the US populace will increasingly be drawn to radical political solutions.
American millennials are doing worse economically than their parents at the same age. Maybe the US won’t break up politically, but would it really be much better if someone like Hugo Chavez comes to power?
Well that's one of the very few redeeming features of the US system, even if someone like Chavez came into power his ability to make radical changes would be severely limited! Just look at what Trump has accomplished, and that's with a republican majority!
Actually my biggest fear is that Trump and the Hawks in Congress are going to get us into a war with North Korea! Even a month ago I would have said that will never happen, but every time NK tests another missile Trump's support for a war grows stronger! And I truly believe that is what he wants! But of course it won't be him and his that do the fighting and dying! I think war with NK is the only thing that might break the US!
I don’t know how well checks and balances will work if it really came to that. Lincoln threatened to arrest the chief justice of the Supreme Court and suspended habeas corpus.
Since the president is in charge of executing the laws, he can arrest his political enemies in congress on charges of breaking some law. Given the recent wave of powerful men taken down by sexual harassment allegations, I’m not confident that congress will be able to withstand a purge by the executive branch.
Congress is vulnerable to divide and conquer tactics. An effective president bent on taking power from congress will have little trouble dividing congress and purging his enemies.
I don’t think Trump is a good example. Trump wants to be liked too much to be an effective president. Imagine someone like Putin as president. He doesn’t need to be liked. He just wants loyalty from his friends and fear from his enemies. Do you think someone like Putin will have trouble finding something to bring down his enemies in congress?
Since presidential impeachment requires majority of the house and 2/3 majority in the senate, all the President needs is loyalty of 1/3 of the senate to be impeachment proof. Individual members of congress, on the other hand has no such protection against criminal prosecution. An effective president can pick off his congressional enemies one by one. Imagine knowing that opposing the president means bringing down the full weight of the DOJ on you, your family, friends, and supporters while the president has an impeachment proof block of allies in the Senate. I think the smart thing to do for a Congressman who oppose the president is to call in sick when you don’t agree on a vote.
Watch what is going on right now with the DOJ and the Russia investigation! Trump wishes that the DOJ was under his thumb! In order to do what you are suggesting would require a FBI director willing to support him and that doesn't seem that likely! What would likely happen is you would get two or three congressman under investigation and then you would get a full revolt in Congress! Remember that in the end congressman are answerable to the voting public not the president! And of course the judiciary is totally independent!
Again, Trump is a bad example. He is not an effective leader in general. He doesn’t inspire loyalty or fear. People don’t take him seriously.
The director of the FBI serves at the president’s leisure. He can fire any disobedient director and hire a loyalist. Trump’s ineffectiveness is seen by his inability to arm twist members of congress.
An effective president would order a night of the long knives for his enemies in congress. Just quietly gather evidence of wrong doing and arrest them all at night, in their beds. By morning only the loyal and the scared would be in congress.
Imagine how much easier it would be to pass laws if half of congress got arrest one night. Both houses and senate only require a single majority for a quorum. So theoretically the president can arrest 49 members of the senate and 217 members of the house over night and still have a quorum to pass whatever legislation he wants the next morning.
American presidents have thus far not resorted to such extreme measures because such a move would set a very radical precedent. However, nothing institutionally prevents such an outcome. The president is very well within his powers to order the arrest of half of congress in one night. Nothing prohibits this in the Constitution, and nothing in the oaths that law enforcement and military swears ask them to defend criminals who happen to sit in congress.
I will admit that your senario is interesting but I am not sure if it could work like that! Granted I am not an expert but I think in a situation like you discribe the states would have to send replacements and then hold emergency elections! Like I said I'm not an expert though and it would certainly be interesting, if I was in Europe say lol!
Anyway, thanks for the nightmares lol!
America is an internally weak frxwork of very different people's. It will break apart, meanwhile China will conquer and annex Taiwan, and Mongolia by 2049.
I have the same view of EU. The decline of patriotism and importance of the nation state will be their demise, with small fiefdoms comprising various political factions; feminists, neoliberals, Islamists and so forth. Because politics have today become so infected and polarized in the West that compromise is no longer an option.
James Luong (梁孟俊)
Sir, such a prediction has gone a bit too far? Surely the us have more to unite them as a nation. Even if the ua splinters, it will eventually be reunited. You know, 合久必分、分久必合。
Trust me Paul, in 2040 there is a much higher chance that China would break into a civil war, fall into a great economy crisis, or have a nuclear war with US than US fall apart and break into states.
The US military would never let that happen.
K W Wong：
I think a large country that going to break up should be Russia, China may have a chance to retake Far East Russia
That is a rather bold prediction…
It is, but I think it is time to start talking about the end of the US.
That would be quite a shock to the ‘Murica No.1 folks…
They are idiots.
Dmitry Petrov, Retired (2017-present)
德米特里 · 彼得罗夫，退休(2017 -如今)
I do not have many doubts that China will become the #1 superpower.
Nevertheless, I find Godfree Roberts' answer to Will China become an unrivaled superpower? to be a huge exaggeration.
The Chinese deal with reality differently related to Europeans, including Russians and Americans. Sometimes it works well, sometimes it does not. The citizens of Middle Kingdom have a strong capacity to invent things, but they invent things in their own way, which hardly ever will be proved to become uncomparably the best. The example of their predecessor, Japan, has already shown this. See: “China’s growth miracle has run out of steam” by Michael Pettis, FT NOVEMBER 19, 2017; Amazon.com: Order by Accident: The Origins and Consequences of Conformity in Contemporary Japan (9780813339214): Alan Miller, Satoshi Kanazawa: Books. Neither can they be superior to everybody in ALL branches of science and technology. Their ethics is valid, but other ethical systems are valid too.
The US surely has lost her way, but the chances are high that she will touch the bottom, push off and get to the surface again. Europe, especially Eastern Europe and Germany, hopefully in tune with Russia and in concert with Japan, will work hard to transform positively, in order to catch up with China. India, which is an English-speaking country and which will in few years have the biggest population of the world, will also be up, rather soon, with her will to emerge. The Chinese themselves will try to support a more balanced development, investing their capitals worldwide and trying to upgrade friendly countries.
Then, China has learned from the Great Britain and the US, that being the strongest power shall, in the long run, inevitably turn out counter-productive. Even if the policy of isolationalism, which characterised Ming and Qing dynasties, would not be surely applied in present-day world, some isolationistic features are still present in Chinese mentality; I do not think that China will be too active in expanding militarily towards American continents.
All civilizations tend to lose the impetus when they become too well-off and are not bound to compete for the survival. It would be too strange if the Chinese should become the unprecedented exception.
China do not want to be a No. 1 superpower or become the world’s policeman. It has lots of its own problem to tackle. Like the well being of its population. History showed that China is not a country that wants to do harm to other countries or people.
Alan Tam, studied at Manchester Metropolitan University
China is aging faster then you probably aware. this is a big problem to China economy development as aging population create huge burdens to the nation welfare systems and lower productivity.
China must let go of its strict restriction on birthrate or future is doomed as a society as it is today.
Ethan Mouch, Knows International relations, inside and out.
That is way to bold a claim to make. Like, out of left field. This would require alot to happen, namely, for the US to fall off the map. That seems very improbable. Additionally, many people that boast this are forgetting the nation looking like the biggest thorn in China's side for the next decade or two: India. There is a saying that goes:
“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”
无可对抗的超等大国吗? 这是一个大胆的主张，这种说法有点突如其来(out of left field)的意思。这需求很大的改动才干做到，得美国先坠落，这好像十分不行能。别的，很多炫耀这一点的人遗忘了中国在将来10年或20年里最大的妨碍：印度。有一种说法是：
China will be rivaled by two powers in, say, 2050, when they will finally pull away from the US economically. Obviously enough, they are the predecessor, the US, who would need a colossal collaspe to not compete any longer, which is unlikely, and India, the dark horse of geopolitics.
This is also not taking into account the rising powers of that time period. We talk about Saudi Arabia and Iran today as intermediate powers, but as the Middle East oil dries up and cleaner energy sources emerge in the West, that won’t last. Instead, we will be mentioning countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and espeically Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Africa as the importance and economic development of Africa skyrockets in the coming decades.
A balance of power is the general norm in diplomacy. It occurred in Europe for centuries. In the era of colonial nations, France, Britain, Austria, Spain, Portugal, and later Russia, Prussia, and the Netherlands would keep no nation from being too powerful. The British recognized this and made it their general policy in foreign affairs for a long time. When Europe was redrawn in 1815 during the Congress of Vienna, they came seeking a continental status quo, which they achieved for roughly a hundred years until WW1.
That was off topic a bit, but what I am saying is this: What the US achieved with global supremacy after the Cold War was unprecedented, but it is far from surprising it didn't last long. China is no exception to the rule, and will face even more challenges to its power than what the US faces now when it does inevitably take that mantle as the “superpower”.
India will only surpass China in terms of population size, nothing else.
“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”
I really like this saying, do you know where this is from?
I don't really have a specific source. I just picked it up over a period of time. I searched a few times but couldn't find much.
It's good bro, I also tried looking for it as well and couldn't find anything.
Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private (1973-2017)
China is a super power now. It is not yet unrivaled but with its powerful growth still moving at a rate unrivaled and the US prominence fading, China will definitely become unrivaled and it will not take more than 20 years to do it.
The effects of the federal bank pumping endless money into the US system to keep it afloat will come to an end much sooner than we may all think.
2018 could be a pivotal year for the world’s economy. US indebtedness, inflation, military complex control of the budget at a time when rivals with little or no debt are creating an arms race plus internal unrest between the haves and the have nots, is going to exacerbate US decline in 2018. The combined effects could be enough to push it over the edge.
Alex Liu, Editor at For Freedom (2013-present)
Alex Liu, 《为自在而战》编辑，2013至今
Yes, China will be an unrivaled superpower if the below fact would not happened.
Family of Yang Gailan with total members of 8: her parents in law, husband, 3 daughters, and 1 son.
The main family income was from her husband with RMB 5,000 (USD 750) per year. If the family was qualified for low income assistant of government, the family could get extra RMB 3,600 (USD 550). It was totally USD 1,300, divided by 8 members, each member with USA 0.45 per day.
However, local officials stripped Ms. Yang of welfare benefits two years ago because she did not meet the official standard for poverty, which in China applies to people earning less than $350 per year. This reduced each member ‘s money of Yang’s family to USD 0.25 per day. It was too hard to the family to survive.
In Sep 2016, Ms. Yang killed herself after poisoning her children with pesticides and attacking them with an ax. After 1 week her husband also committed suicide.
Noel Leong, Chief Financial Officer at Semiconductors
Noel Leong, 半导体公司首席财政官
China was an unrivaled super power but during that time it existed as a myth and legend to most in the West. Then comes the period of long isolation and failure to move with the progress of time. This led to the demise of China in late 19th century and long period of catching up with the rest of the developed world. Fast forward 100 years and there’s every indication that China will once again be a power to be reckoned with in the 21st century. There’s no doubt that China will overtake US as the biggest economy in the world, which it may already has. However, there’s still a great disparity in economic development between different regions in China. If China managed to get all regions to develop into first world economy, it will be unrivaled as an economic power.
As for political and military power, China is still playing catch-up and not at the same level as US, Russia or even India. However, things are changing and China is taking a patient stands in developing its political influence and in modernizing it’s military. The Belt Road initiative would help its to increase its influence from South East Asia to Africa. It could be an unrivaled super power as it was in the 15th century if it is able to keep up with changess in technology and maintain political stability at home.
No. They are due to run out of water in the year 2030. They are also experiencing extremely low birth rates and pollution levels are so high its cities are barely habitable. They are also in 260% debt to GDP ratio so their economy will most likely fall apart and some point when they lose the ability to pay even interest on their debts.
Simply no. There was not a single unrivaled superpower ever in human history and it is hard to foresee one to come soon. You have the British empire losing USA when it was very powerful and you have NK threatening USA with nuclear weapons now. Even if you have the biggest GDP doesn't mean that you are unrivaled and can do whatever you want.
Mervyn Locke, Enlightened laowai/Decade-long China resident
Maybe. But it won’t happen overnight. I’d say that if it would happen, it will take at least another 10–20 years.