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美媒:中国会成为一个无可对抗的超等大国吗?

戈德菲·罗伯茨,教诲学博士,教诲与地缘政治,马萨诸塞大学,艾摩斯特市(1973年)

中国将在2040年景为一个无可对抗的超等大国,到当时中国将:

片面主导天下经济。中国的生齿是欧盟的三倍,因而,在2040,中国的经济将比美国、欧洲和日本经济加起来还要大50%。这与诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·福格尔(RobertFogel)2010年的预测分歧:“到2040,中国人均支出将到达85000美元---是欧盟预期的两倍多---她在环球GDP中所占的份额将到达40%,美国与之相比相形见绌,这是真正的经济霸权该有的样子“。·

·主导一切迷信学科。“日本迷信技能复兴机构”( Japan Science and Technology Agency)表现,中国曾经是八个中心迷信范畴中最有影响力的国度,与美国并列。中国在盘算机迷信、数学、资料迷信和工程范畴排名第一,而美国在物理、情况和地球迷信、根底生命迷信和临床医学方面抢先---但中国在物理学方面正在敏捷追逐(中国斥资六十亿美元制作了天下上最大的粒子减速器,这将使它在粒子物理学方面处于抢先位置)。十年前,中国在这些学科中完全没有抢先,但以现在的速率,它将在不到13年的工夫内主导一切这些学科。

·主导每项技能。中国曾经在土木匠程、制造业、超等盘算、语音辨认、图形学、钍动力、球床反响堆、基因组学、火力发电、量子通讯网络、反潜导弹、在轨卫星、主动阵列雷达、超资料、高光谱成像、纳米技能、特高压输电、电动汽车、高速铁路、可继续动力、无线电望远镜、可继续动力研讨和制造、高明音速空间武器、量子通讯卫星和量子平安通讯等范畴抢先天下。到2030,它将主导剩下的技能,如盘算机芯片制造和人工智能等。

·在军事上占主导位置。到2020,中国将在间隔她的界限500英里内的海洋、海上和空中完全占据自动,在那边她的进攻武器比美国的防御性武器愈加先辈,数目也更多。当时,她的经济会比美国弱小得多:舰队博得战役,但经济却能博得和平。

·主导网络空间和互联网。中国曾经在互联网上独占鳌头,到2035,将有更多的人在互联网上停止买卖,其买卖量和买卖金额将超越欧洲和北美一切百姓的总和。

·在百姓幸福度上占主导位置。由于现在的反贫穷活动,到2020,中国将拥有比美国更平安的街道、更好的教诲、更高的社会活动性、更多的穷人和更少的饥饿、无家可归者和贫民。·

·在品德上主导天下。假如当局遵照习的发起,到2049,中国将再次拥有与毛泽东期间一样的基尼系数--最公道的财产分享系数--也将是一切次要当局中最好的人权记载。

·成为地球上最值得信任的当局。假如中国防止和平,不干预别国际政,开展与南欧、东欧、非洲和拉美的干系,完成上述六项义务,2040年中国将成为天下的仲裁者和天然首领。

【以下是批评部份】

Paul Denlinger:

Nov 28 · 28 upvotes

I don’t think the US will exist anymore in 2040, which means that the US$ will not be around as a reserve currency.

Instead, the US will fracture into smaller mini-states, each with its radically different politics.

Basically, the US experiment will end spectacularly.

我不以为美国在2040年会持续存在,这意味着美元不会成为储藏钱币。

相反,美国将会倾圯成更小的小国度,每一个都有着一模一样的政治。根本上,美国的实行将以惊人的后果完毕。

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Hoang Nghiem (严黄):

Nov 28 · 4 upvotes

I didn’t think the US was really that fragile was it? I’m curious as to why the Americans would intentionally self-fracture themselves into many smaller nation states.

我不以为美国真的那么软弱,我很猎奇为什么美国人会成心把本人破裂成很多较小的国度。

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Paul Denlinger:

US unity depends on the American people; the US is the real People’s Republic.

That unity is gone.

It is like a bad marriage; both sides hate each other, but no one wants to be the first asking for a divorce.

美国的勾结取决于美国人民;美国是真正的人民共和国,这种勾结曾经不复存在,这就像一段蹩脚的婚姻,单方都很厌恶对方,只是没人情愿起首提出仳离。

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Hoang Nghiem (严黄):

Paul, you’re referring to the current social divide between conservatives and liberals right?

保罗, 你指的是激进派和自在派之间以后的社会分解,对吧?

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Paul Denlinger:

Not only.

Americans have always believed this myth that American society is classless. However, following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the whole society is dividing along economic class lines.

It is going to split into so many pieces, and it will be impossible to put it back together unless the US produces a leader like Mao.

不只仅是这点。

美国人不断置信一个神话,即美国社会是无阶层的。但是,继2008次贷危急之后,整个社会正处于经济阶级的分解之中。

它将破裂成很多碎片,除非美国发生像毛如许的向导人,不然不行能把它重新组合起来。

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Hank Barley:

There’s nothing like a war to stir up patriotism and unite the people. Recall how popular Bush was when Iraq was invaded? Based on false pretense or not, the country was united and his approval rating shot to the 90% range.

没有什么比和平更能激起爱国主义和勾结人民的力气。追念一下当伊拉克被入侵时布什是何等受欢送?基于或真或假的捏词,当时候的美国是国度勾结分歧的,他的支持率到达了90%。

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Aaron Delt

More Chinese nationalist pep rally mentality. Its just your wet dream. People have been betting against the US for a long time.

你所说更多的是一种中百姓族主义鼓动士气的心态,这只是你的意淫,临时以来,人们不断在逃注美国。

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Josh Bergeman:

As someone who lives in the US I can say with a fair degree of accuracy that the US is NOT going to break apart any time soon! I know that we may seem devided, but the truth is that most of us simply don't care that much about politics! You have to realize that only about 130 million people even bothered to vote in our last election! That's out of a population of over 300 million! Unless there is a major economic meltdown most of us are just busy living our lives and not worrying about politics! I know it's sad, but that's just the way it is!

作为一个生存在美国的人,我可以相称一定地说,短工夫内美国不会很快破裂!我晓得,我们能够看起来是被离开的,但现实是,我们大少数人基本不太关怀政治!你必需认识到,在我们前次的推举中,乃至只要约莫一亿三万万人到场投票!这只是超越三亿的生齿中的一局部!除非有严重的经济解体,不然我们大少数人只是忙于生存,而不担忧政治!我晓得这很可悲,但现实便是云云!

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Hoang Nghiem (严黄):

Yep, I agree Josh, it’s why I had to ask Paul to clarify and justify himself. Things may look bad now with “the Donald” in the White House, but the US is still doing pretty well for itself I think!

是的,我赞同Josh(注:楼上)的观念,这便是为什么我要让保罗廓清和证明本人的缘由。白宫里的谁人“唐纳德”能够看起来很蹩脚,但我以为,美国依然做得很好。

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Jeffery Zhang:

Normally I would say you are right, but this really depends on how badly the quality of life deteriorates for the middle class. Most people don’t care about politics, but they do care about their own quality of life.

Give how national policies of the US has made basic cost of living + healthcare + education so prohibitively expensive for average Americans, the US populace will increasingly be drawn to radical political solutions.

American millennials are doing worse economically than their parents at the same age. Maybe the US won’t break up politically, but would it really be much better if someone like Hugo Chavez comes to power?

通常我会说你是对的,但这真的取决于中产阶层生存质量的好转水平。大少数人不关怀政治,但他们关怀本人的生存质量。

看看美国的国度政策怎样使得平凡美国人的根本生存本钱+医疗+教诲云云昂贵,美国大众将越来越多地被保守的政治处理方案所吸引。

美国千禧一代在经济上的体现比他们同龄时期的怙恃还要差。大概美国不会在政治上破裂,但假如像乌戈·查韦斯(注:委内瑞拉第 52、53 任总统)如许的人下台,状况真的会好得多吗?

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Josh Bergeman:

Well that's one of the very few redeeming features of the US system, even if someone like Chavez came into power his ability to make radical changes would be severely limited! Just look at what Trump has accomplished, and that's with a republican majority!

Actually my biggest fear is that Trump and the Hawks in Congress are going to get us into a war with North Korea! Even a month ago I would have said that will never happen, but every time NK tests another missile Trump's support for a war grows stronger! And I truly believe that is what he wants! But of course it won't be him and his that do the fighting and dying! I think war with NK is the only thing that might break the US!

好吧,这是美国体制中为数未几的几个可取之处之一,即便查韦斯如许的人下台,他做出基本改动的才能也将遭到严峻限定!看看特朗普能做得了什么,这是共和党的少数派!

现实上,我最大的担忧是特朗普和国会的鹰派会让我们卷入一场与朝鲜的和平!就在一个月前,我还会说,这种状况永久不会发作,但每次朝鲜试射另一枚导弹,特朗普对和平的支持就会越来越激烈!我真的置信这便是他想要的!但固然不会是他和他的人在战役和殒命!我以为与朝鲜的和平是独一能够会毁坏美国的事变!

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Jeffery Zhang:

I don’t know how well checks and balances will work if it really came to that. Lincoln threatened to arrest the chief justice of the Supreme Court and suspended habeas corpus.

Since the president is in charge of executing the laws, he can arrest his political enemies in congress on charges of breaking some law. Given the recent wave of powerful men taken down by sexual harassment allegations, I’m not confident that congress will be able to withstand a purge by the executive branch.

我不晓得假如真的有如许的状况,制衡会有多大的结果。林肯就曾要挟要拘捕最高法院的首席法官,并停息其人身维护令。

由于总统担任实行执法,他可以以违背执法的罪名拘捕他在国会的政敌。思索到近来一波被性骚扰控告所打击的强势人物,我不置信国会可以禁受住行政部分的洗濯。

Congress is vulnerable to divide and conquer tactics. An effective president bent on taking power from congress will have little trouble dividing congress and purging his enemies.

I don’t think Trump is a good example. Trump wants to be liked too much to be an effective president. Imagine someone like Putin as president. He doesn’t need to be liked. He just wants loyalty from his friends and fear from his enemies. Do you think someone like Putin will have trouble finding something to bring down his enemies in congress?

国会很容易被分而治之。一个努力于从国会取得权利的总统,想要破裂国会和肃清他的朋友,简直没有什么困难。

我不以为特朗普是一个很好的例子。特朗普想要成为一个有影响力的总统,但太甚于想被人喜好,

你得想象一下像普京如许的人中选总统,他不需求被人喜好,他只想失掉冤家的忠实和朋友的恐惊。你以为像普京如许的人能在国会找到什么工具来打垮他的朋友?

Since presidential impeachment requires majority of the house and 2/3 majority in the senate, all the President needs is loyalty of 1/3 of the senate to be impeachment proof. Individual members of congress, on the other hand has no such protection against criminal prosecution. An effective president can pick off his congressional enemies one by one. Imagine knowing that opposing the president means bringing down the full weight of the DOJ on you, your family, friends, and supporters while the president has an impeachment proof block of allies in the Senate. I think the smart thing to do for a Congressman who oppose the president is to call in sick when you don’t agree on a vote.

由于总统弹劾需求众议院少数票和商讨院2/3少数票,总统所需求的只是1/3的商讨院忠实就能免于被弹劾。另一方面,却没有如许的维护步伐来避免刑事诉讼。一个努力于此的总统可以一个一个地撤除他的国会朋友。想象一下,假如晓得支持总统意味着法律部的全部权利会压在你、你的家人、冤家和支持者身上,而总统却在商讨院有一个弹劾你的盟友,我以为,对一个支持总统的国集会员来说,明智的做法是在你差别意投票的状况下打德律风请个病假。

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Josh Bergeman:

Watch what is going on right now with the DOJ and the Russia investigation! Trump wishes that the DOJ was under his thumb! In order to do what you are suggesting would require a FBI director willing to support him and that doesn't seem that likely! What would likely happen is you would get two or three congressman under investigation and then you would get a full revolt in Congress! Remember that in the end congressman are answerable to the voting public not the president! And of course the judiciary is totally independent!

看看如今和法律部和俄罗斯观察有关的状况!特朗普盼望美国法律部在他的掌控之下!为了做到你所说的,他需求一个联邦观察局局长情愿支持他,而这看起来并不行能!能够会发作的是你会遭到两到三名国集会员的观察,然后你会在国会遭到片面的对抗!请记着,国集会员终极是对投票的大众担任,而不是总统!并且毫无疑问,法律机构是完全独立!

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Jeffery Zhang:

Again, Trump is a bad example. He is not an effective leader in general. He doesn’t inspire loyalty or fear. People don’t take him seriously.

The director of the FBI serves at the president’s leisure. He can fire any disobedient director and hire a loyalist. Trump’s ineffectiveness is seen by his inability to arm twist members of congress.

再说一次,特朗普是一个蹩脚的例子。他在普通状况下并不是一个行之有效的向导人,他不会激起忠实或恐惊,人们不把他当回事。

联邦观察局局长为总统效劳,他可以辞退任何不听话的局长,并雇佣一个忠实于本人的人。特朗普的有效之处在于他在左右国集会员方面的能干。

An effective president would order a night of the long knives for his enemies in congress. Just quietly gather evidence of wrong doing and arrest them all at night, in their beds. By morning only the loyal and the scared would be in congress.

Imagine how much easier it would be to pass laws if half of congress got arrest one night. Both houses and senate only require a single majority for a quorum. So theoretically the president can arrest 49 members of the senate and 217 members of the house over night and still have a quorum to pass whatever legislation he wants the next morning.

一位故意取得权利的总统会对他在国会的朋友黑暗动手。只是悄悄地搜集错误的证据,然后到了早晨,在他们的床上拘捕他们,到了晚上,只要心胸忠实和恐惊的人会呈现在国会。

想象一下,假如有一半的国集会员在某天早晨被拘捕,那么经过执法将会变得何等容易。参众两院只需求法定人数到达单一少数,以是实际上说,总统可以在早晨拘捕49名商讨院议员和217名众议院议员,但依然可以到达法定人数要求,可以在第二天早上经过他想要的任何法案。

American presidents have thus far not resorted to such extreme measures because such a move would set a very radical precedent. However, nothing institutionally prevents such an outcome. The president is very well within his powers to order the arrest of half of congress in one night. Nothing prohibits this in the Constitution, and nothing in the oaths that law enforcement and military swears ask them to defend criminals who happen to sit in congress.

到现在为止,美国总统还没有接纳云云极度的步伐,由于如许的活动会创始一个十分保守的先例。

但是,体制上没有任何可以制止这种后果的呈现的规矩。总统有才能下令在一夜之间拘捕国会一半的议员,这并不违宪,在执法实行和部队誓词中,也没有任何一项要求他们必需为那些可巧在国会的罪犯辩护。

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Josh Bergeman:

I will admit that your senario is interesting but I am not sure if it could work like that! Granted I am not an expert but I think in a situation like you discribe the states would have to send replacements and then hold emergency elections! Like I said I'm not an expert though and it would certainly be interesting, if I was in Europe say lol!

Anyway, thanks for the nightmares lol!

我供认你的想象很风趣,但我不确定它能否真会那样!固然,我不是专家,但我以为,在像你描绘的那种状况下,各州一定会派人停止交换,然后举行告急推举!就像我刚说的,虽然我不是专家,我照旧以为你说的很故意思 lol!

不论怎样,谢谢你给的噩梦!

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Wyatt Peck:

America is an internally weak frxwork of very different people's. It will break apart, meanwhile China will conquer and annex Taiwan, and Mongolia by 2049.

美国是一个有种种差别范例大众的国度,其外部框架单薄,它将破裂,与此同时,中国将在2049年降服霸占并台湾和蒙古。

Mervyn Locke:

I have the same view of EU. The decline of patriotism and importance of the nation state will be their demise, with small fiefdoms comprising various political factions; feminists, neoliberals, Islamists and so forth. Because politics have today become so infected and polarized in the West that compromise is no longer an option.

我对欧盟也有异样的见解。爱国主义的衰落和国度的紧张性会招致它们的灭亡,分解为由差别的政治派系构成的小领地;女权主义者,新自在主义者,伊斯兰主义者等等,现在的政治曾经在东方遭到云云严峻的熏染和分解,因而妥协不再是一种选择。

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James Luong (梁孟俊)

Sir, such a prediction has gone a bit too far? Surely the us have more to unite them as a nation. Even if the ua splinters, it will eventually be reunited. You know, 合久必分、分久必合。

(Paul Denlinger)大佬,如许的预测有点太甚分了吧?无疑的,美国有更多的力气使其作为一个国度来勾结起来,即便是美国破裂,它终极也会重新一致,你懂的,合久必分、分久必合。

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Quang Nguyen:

Trust me Paul, in 2040 there is a much higher chance that China would break into a civil war, fall into a great economy crisis, or have a nuclear war with US than US fall apart and break into states.

置信我,保罗,2040年中国堕入一场内战,堕入一场宏大的经济危急,或许与美国发作核和平的几率比美国土崩瓦解,破裂成差别国度的几率要高。

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Omead Moses:

The US military would never let that happen.

美国军方绝不会让这种状况发作。

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K W Wong:

I think a large country that going to break up should be Russia, China may have a chance to retake Far East Russia

我以为一个将要破裂的大国应该是俄罗斯,中国有能够重新夺回远东地域。

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Roger Jiang

That is a rather bold prediction…

这是一个相称大胆的预测。。。

Paul Denlinger

It is, but I think it is time to start talking about the end of the US.

是的,但我以为是时分开端议论美国的闭幕了。

Roger Jiang

That would be quite a shock to the ‘Murica No.1 folks…

这对“美国优先”的人来说是一种震惊。

Paul Denlinger

They are idiots.

他们是呆子。

——————2————————

Dmitry Petrov, Retired (2017-present)

德米特里 · 彼得罗夫,退休(2017 -如今)

I do not have many doubts that China will become the #1 superpower.

Nevertheless, I find Godfree Roberts' answer to Will China become an unrivaled superpower? to be a huge exaggeration.

我不疑心中国会成为头号超等大国。

虽然云云,我照旧以为戈德菲·罗伯茨(Godfree Roberts,即楼上取得最高赞的答主)对中国事否会成为一个无可对抗的超等大国的答案,有点太夸大了。

The Chinese deal with reality differently related to Europeans, including Russians and Americans. Sometimes it works well, sometimes it does not. The citizens of Middle Kingdom have a strong capacity to invent things, but they invent things in their own way, which hardly ever will be proved to become uncomparably the best. The example of their predecessor, Japan, has already shown this. See: “China’s growth miracle has run out of steam” by Michael Pettis, FT NOVEMBER 19, 2017; Amazon.com: Order by Accident: The Origins and Consequences of Conformity in Contemporary Japan (9780813339214): Alan Miller, Satoshi Kanazawa: Books. Neither can they be superior to everybody in ALL branches of science and technology. Their ethics is valid, but other ethical systems are valid too.

中国人看待理想的态度与欧洲人差别,包罗俄罗斯人和美国人差别。偶然结果很好,偶然却不可。地方王国的百姓有很强的创造发明才能,但他们以本人的方法创造事物,但简直很难被证明是无与伦比的。他们的后任日本的例子曾经标明了这一点。

拜见:《中国的增长奇观曾经得到动力》,迈克尔佩蒂斯,英国“金融时报”2017年11月19日;亚马逊:《今世日本整合的来源和结果》(9780813339214):艾伦米勒。

他们(中国和日本)也不行能在一切的迷信和技能范畴中比任何人都良好。他们的伦理是无效的,但别家的伦理体系也是无效的。

The US surely has lost her way, but the chances are high that she will touch the bottom, push off and get to the surface again. Europe, especially Eastern Europe and Germany, hopefully in tune with Russia and in concert with Japan, will work hard to transform positively, in order to catch up with China. India, which is an English-speaking country and which will in few years have the biggest population of the world, will also be up, rather soon, with her will to emerge. The Chinese themselves will try to support a more balanced development, investing their capitals worldwide and trying to upgrade friendly countries.

美国无疑曾经迷失了偏向,但她触底、解脱、并再次浮出水面的能够性很高。欧洲,特殊是东欧和德国,盼望与俄罗斯坚持分歧,并与日本和谐分歧,高兴完成积极的革新,以遇上中国。印度是一个讲英语的国度,几年后将拥有天下上生齿最多的国度,她也将很快崛起。中国将高兴维持愈加均衡的开展,活着界范畴内投资资源,在环球范畴内投资,并高兴晋级敌对国度。

Then, China has learned from the Great Britain and the US, that being the strongest power shall, in the long run, inevitably turn out counter-productive. Even if the policy of isolationalism, which characterised Ming and Qing dynasties, would not be surely applied in present-day world, some isolationistic features are still present in Chinese mentality; I do not think that China will be too active in expanding militarily towards American continents.

All civilizations tend to lose the impetus when they become too well-off and are not bound to compete for the survival. It would be too strange if the Chinese should become the unprecedented exception.

中国从英国美国那边汲取了经历经验,从久远来看,作为最弱小的力气,必定会发生反作用。即便作为明清两代次要特性的的伶仃主义政策,在当当代界也不实用,而中国人的心态依然存在一些伶仃主义的特点,我可不以为中国会积极地向美洲大陆停止军事扩张。

一切的文明,当他们变得十分富饶,而且不用将为生活而竞争的时分,都市趋势于得到动力,假如中国人成为一个亘古未有的破例,那就太奇异了。

--------------

Poh Foong:

China do not want to be a No. 1 superpower or become the world’s policeman. It has lots of its own problem to tackle. Like the well being of its population. History showed that China is not a country that wants to do harm to other countries or people.

中国不想成为头号超等大国,也不想成为天下警员。它有很多本人的题目需求处理。比方它的生齿题目。汗青标明,中国不是一个想要损伤其他国度某人民的国度。

——————3————————

Alan Tam, studied at Manchester Metropolitan University

Alan Tam,在曼彻斯特都会大学学习

China is aging faster then you probably aware. this is a big problem to China economy development as aging population create huge burdens to the nation welfare systems and lower productivity.

China must let go of its strict restriction on birthrate or future is doomed as a society as it is today.

中国正在疾速老龄化,你能够曾经认识到了。生齿老龄化给国度福利制度带来宏大担负,招致消费服从低下,这是中国经济开展面对的严重题目。

中国必需放开对出生率的严厉限定,不然将来注定和明天如许的社会没什么两样。

——————4————————

Ethan Mouch, Knows International relations, inside and out.

伊桑·穆奇,理解国际干系,无论表里。

Unrivaled superpower?

That is way to bold a claim to make. Like, out of left field. This would require alot to happen, namely, for the US to fall off the map. That seems very improbable. Additionally, many people that boast this are forgetting the nation looking like the biggest thorn in China's side for the next decade or two: India. There is a saying that goes:

“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”

无可对抗的超等大国吗? 这是一个大胆的主张,这种说法有点突如其来(out of left field)的意思。这需求很大的改动才干做到,得美国先坠落,这好像十分不行能。别的,很多炫耀这一点的人遗忘了中国在将来10年或20年里最大的妨碍:印度。有一种说法是:

美国是明天的超等大国,中国事今天的超等大国,而印度是再下一个超等大国。”

China will be rivaled by two powers in, say, 2050, when they will finally pull away from the US economically. Obviously enough, they are the predecessor, the US, who would need a colossal collaspe to not compete any longer, which is unlikely, and India, the dark horse of geopolitics.

到2050年,中国将与两个大国相对抗,届时中国将在经济上终极甩开美国。但这显然还不敷,作为后任的美国的,要使其不再竞争,必需迎来一个宏大的解体,这是不行能的,而印度则是地缘政治的黑马。

This is also not taking into account the rising powers of that time period. We talk about Saudi Arabia and Iran today as intermediate powers, but as the Middle East oil dries up and cleaner energy sources emerge in the West, that won’t last. Instead, we will be mentioning countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and espeically Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Africa as the importance and economic development of Africa skyrockets in the coming decades.

这还没有思索到谁人时期崛起的国度。我们明天议论沙特阿拉伯和伊朗,称其为两头性大国,但随着中东煤油干涸,东方呈现更的干净动力,这种状况不会继续下去。相反,我们将提到巴西、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、埃及和南非等国度,且非洲在将来几十年中的紧张性和经济开展都市敏捷增长。

A balance of power is the general norm in diplomacy. It occurred in Europe for centuries. In the era of colonial nations, France, Britain, Austria, Spain, Portugal, and later Russia, Prussia, and the Netherlands would keep no nation from being too powerful. The British recognized this and made it their general policy in foreign affairs for a long time. When Europe was redrawn in 1815 during the Congress of Vienna, they came seeking a continental status quo, which they achieved for roughly a hundred years until WW1.

权利的均衡是内政的广泛原则,它继续影响了欧洲几个世纪。在殖民国度的期间,法国、英国、奥天时、西班牙、葡萄牙以及厥后的俄罗斯、普鲁士和荷兰,都不会让任何一个国度变得过于弱小。英国看法到这一点,并临时将其作为内政政策的总目标。当欧洲在1815的维也纳集会时期被重新分别时,他们开端寻求坚持大陆均势,到第一次天下大战,他们使欧洲坚持了约莫一百年的均势近况。

That was off topic a bit, but what I am saying is this: What the US achieved with global supremacy after the Cold War was unprecedented, but it is far from surprising it didn't last long. China is no exception to the rule, and will face even more challenges to its power than what the US faces now when it does inevitably take that mantle as the “superpower”.

这个话题有点切题,但我想说的是:热战后美国在环球霸权方面所获得的成绩是史无前例的,但这并不令人诧异,它没有继续多久。中国也不破例,当它不行防止地接过这个“超等大国”的脚色时,它将面对比美国如今面对的更大的应战。

--------------

Mervyn Locke:

India will only surpass China in terms of population size, nothing else.

印度只会在生齿范围上逾越中国,仅此罢了。

--------------

Metin Basturk:

“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”

I really like this saying, do you know where this is from?

美国是明天的超等大国,中国事今天的超等大国,而印度是再下一个超等大国。”

-----我很中意这个说法,你晓得这话从那边来的吗?

--------------

Ethan Mouch

I don't really have a specific source. I just picked it up over a period of time. I searched a few times but couldn't find much.

我并没有一个详细的泉源,我只是在某段工夫看到过,我找了频频,但找不到。

Metin Basturk

It's good bro, I also tried looking for it as well and couldn't find anything.

没事,兄弟,我也试着找过,但找不就任何工具。

——————5————————

Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private (1973-2017)

鲍勃·麦克肯兹,前公家企业主和司理 (1973-2017)

China is a super power now. It is not yet unrivaled but with its powerful growth still moving at a rate unrivaled and the US prominence fading, China will definitely become unrivaled and it will not take more than 20 years to do it.

The effects of the federal bank pumping endless money into the US system to keep it afloat will come to an end much sooner than we may all think.

2018 could be a pivotal year for the world’s economy. US indebtedness, inflation, military complex control of the budget at a time when rivals with little or no debt are creating an arms race plus internal unrest between the haves and the have nots, is going to exacerbate US decline in 2018. The combined effects could be enough to push it over the edge.

中国如今便是一个超等大国,但还不是无可对抗的,随着其微弱的增长仍以无与伦比的速率向前开展,美国的影响力在削弱,中国一定会变得无可对抗,并且不需求超越20年的工夫就能做到这一点。

联邦银行向美国体系注入无尽头的资金以维持其运转,其终极影响的到来将比我们想象的要快得多。

2018年能够是天下经济的要害一年。美国受累于债权、通胀、冗杂军事预算,以及上穷人和贫民之间的动乱,而与此同时,简直很少或没有债权的竞争敌手正在制造一场武备比赛,将加剧美国在2018的衰落,这些综合效应能够足以将其推到解体的边沿。

——————6————————

Alex Liu, Editor at For Freedom (2013-present)

Alex Liu, 《为自在而战》编辑,2013至今

Yes, China will be an unrivaled superpower if the below fact would not happened.

Family of Yang Gailan with total members of 8: her parents in law, husband, 3 daughters, and 1 son.

The main family income was from her husband with RMB 5,000 (USD 750) per year. If the family was qualified for low income assistant of government, the family could get extra RMB 3,600 (USD 550). It was totally USD 1,300, divided by 8 members, each member with USA 0.45 per day.

是的,假如以下现实不发作,中国将成为一个无与伦比的超等大国。

杨盖兰(音译)的家庭成员共有8人:她本人,继怙恃,丈夫,3个女儿,和1个儿子。

她的家庭支出次要来自丈夫,每年支出5000元人民币(合750美元)。假如该家庭契合当局低支出保证资历,这个家庭可取得额定的3600元人民币(550美元),总计1300美元,除以8名成员,每人每天0.45美元。

However, local officials stripped Ms. Yang of welfare benefits two years ago because she did not meet the official standard for poverty, which in China applies to people earning less than $350 per year. This reduced each member ‘s money of Yang’s family to USD 0.25 per day. It was too hard to the family to survive.

In Sep 2016, Ms. Yang killed herself after poisoning her children with pesticides and attacking them with an ax. After 1 week her husband also committed suicide.

但是,两年前,父母官员褫夺了杨密斯的福利救援金,由于她不契合官方规则的贫穷规范,在中国,这一规范实用于年支出低于350美元的人,这使得杨家每个成员的钱增加到每天0.25美元,这个家庭太难生活了。

2016年9月,杨密斯用杀虫剂毒去世了她的孩子,用斧头打击了他们(官员),一周后,她的丈夫也他杀了。

——————7————————

Noel Leong, Chief Financial Officer at Semiconductors

Noel Leong, 半导体公司首席财政官

China was an unrivaled super power but during that time it existed as a myth and legend to most in the West. Then comes the period of long isolation and failure to move with the progress of time. This led to the demise of China in late 19th century and long period of catching up with the rest of the developed world. Fast forward 100 years and there’s every indication that China will once again be a power to be reckoned with in the 21st century. There’s no doubt that China will overtake US as the biggest economy in the world, which it may already has. However, there’s still a great disparity in economic development between different regions in China. If China managed to get all regions to develop into first world economy, it will be unrivaled as an economic power.

中国已经是一个无可对抗的超等大国,这段工夫里,在大少数东方国度眼里它是一个神话和传说,然后是临时伶仃的时期,中国没有随着工夫的推移而改动,这招致了中国在十九世纪末的沦亡,并在很长一段工夫内追逐其他兴旺国度。快进100年,就有种种迹象标明,在二十一世纪,中国将再次成为一个不行无视的大国。毫无疑问,中国将超越美国,成为天下上最大的经济体,而中国能够曾经超越了美国,但是,我国各地域之间的经济开展差距依然很大,假如中国乐成地让一切地域开展成为第一天下经济,它将无可对抗地成为一个经济强国。

As for political and military power, China is still playing catch-up and not at the same level as US, Russia or even India. However, things are changing and China is taking a patient stands in developing its political influence and in modernizing it’s military. The Belt Road initiative would help its to increase its influence from South East Asia to Africa. It could be an unrivaled super power as it was in the 15th century if it is able to keep up with changess in technology and maintain political stability at home.

至于政治和军现实力,中国仍在追逐,还没有与美国、俄罗斯乃至印度在统一程度。但是,状况正在发作变革,中国正在耐烦地开展其政治影响力和古代化军事力气。“一带一起”建议将有助于其从西北亚到非洲的影响力的提拔。假如可以跟上科技的提高的步调,坚持国际政治波动,那么它能够成为像十五世纪那样无与伦比的超等大国。

——————8————————

Shane Dunning:

No. They are due to run out of water in the year 2030. They are also experiencing extremely low birth rates and pollution levels are so high its cities are barely habitable. They are also in 260% debt to GDP ratio so their economy will most likely fall apart and some point when they lose the ability to pay even interest on their debts.

不会。他们将在2030年耗尽水资源。他们也正派历着极低的出生率,而净化程度云云之高,其都会简直无法寓居。他们的债权与GDP之比也到达了260%,因而他们的经济很能够会解体,而当他们得到归还债权利钱才能的时分,他们的经济就会解体。

——————9————————

Ken Chan:

Simply no. There was not a single unrivaled superpower ever in human history and it is hard to foresee one to come soon. You have the British empire losing USA when it was very powerful and you have NK threatening USA with nuclear weapons now. Even if you have the biggest GDP doesn't mean that you are unrivaled and can do whatever you want.

基本不会。人类汗青上历来没有呈现过一个单一的无可对抗的超等大国,很难预见会有一个如许的超等大国会呈现。当大英帝国十分弱小的时分,美国呈现了,至于如今,美国很弱小,但朝鲜用核武器要挟着美国,即便你拥有最大的GDP,也并不料味着你是无可对抗的,可以为所欲为。

——————10————————

Mervyn Locke, Enlightened laowai/Decade-long China resident

默文·洛克,开通老外/定居中国十年之久

Maybe. But it won’t happen overnight. I’d say that if it would happen, it will take at least another 10–20 years.

大概吧,但不会在一夜之间发作。我想说,假如这种状况发作,至多还需求20到20年的工夫。

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