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美版知乎quora问答:假如中国对印度媾和

What would happen  if-China-declared-war-on-India-today

假如中国对印度媾和 ...

【美版知乎quora问答】

Igor Markov, Been there done that.
Updated Aug 13, 2015 · Upvoted by Sougata Roy, M. A. International Relations & Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University
The Indian military will go on high alert but won't immediately start a mobilization because a full-scale war is unlikely. However, India will deploy troops, armor and missiles closer to China, also try to obtain more intelligence on China through the US, France and Israel. Maintain contacts with the militaries of all neighboring countries and those having territorial conflicts with China.
The militaries of Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea will go on elevated alert, to match the posture of the Chinese and North Korean militaries.

译文泉源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/44247.html

印度军方会高度警觉,但不会立刻举动。片面和平是不行能的。但是,印度会在中国界限左近摆设部队、装甲和导弹,也会经过美国、法国和以色列获取中国谍报。与邻国坚持军事打仗,这些国度与中都城存在国土争端。

台湾、越南和韩国的军方将坚持警觉,以应对中国和朝鲜部队。

The newsmedia will pick this up quickly, and people all over India will start gathering in protest against the war. The Chinese public may be confused for a few days because their media will give only very limited coverage, and the purpose of declaring war won't be entirely clear. However, people in Hong Kong and millions of Chinese living abroad will start protests against war.

媒领会敏捷报道战事,印度人集聚集起来,抗议和平。中国大众大概会狐疑好几天,媒体只会提供无限的报道,媾和目标也完全不清晰。但是,香港人和海内华人会支持和平。

The stock markets and real estate in China and India will fall hard. USD and gold will gain on demand in Asia. Shares of defense suppliers from Europe, Taiwan, South Korea and Israel will gain (same for Japan's and US defense industry, but to a lesser degree). Real estate in the US and Australia will gradually become more expensive over many months (as big money moves away from Asia), possibly continuing an initial jump. Oil prices will fluctuate - first go up on uncertainty, then potentially fall back in two weeks when no major war unfolds but industries start slowing down nevertheless.

中国和印度股票市场和房地产市场会暴涨,美元和黄金在亚洲的需求会添加。欧洲、韩国、以色列军器商的股票将会大涨。

The US military will go on elevated alert in Japan, South Korea, the Persian Gulf, as well as in Guam and Diego Garcia - as the declaration of war can mask an attempted annexation of Taiwan or an attack on disputed islands in the South China sea. North Korea may be tempted to do something crazy. Satellites will watch nuclear silos more carefully in China, India and Pakistan. Reconnaissance planes will be flying a lot more often around China, Taiwan, North Korea, India, Pakistan. The US surface Navy will deploy to protect major shipping routes and discourage direct confrontations between the Indian and Chinese Navies. US submarines will deploy to the Taiwan strait, while one or two carrier strike groups will approach Taiwan from the East.

日本、朝鲜、波斯湾、关岛、迪戈加西亚岛,美国军方会进步警觉。朝鲜能够会做出猖獗活动。卫星会亲密监督中国、印度、巴基斯坦的核弹发射井,侦查时机愈加频仍地在中国、朝鲜、印度、巴基斯坦四周飞行。美国水师将摆设在次要航道,防止中印水师的间接对立。美国潜艇会摆设台湾海峡,同时一两艘航母会从东面接近台湾。

The UN Security Council will convene within days. Russia and the UK - demonstratively neutral - will lead the efforts to avert a war (but Russia may try to use the opportunity to sell more weapons to both sides, covertly). As a direct participant of the conflict, China will be ineligible to vote on relevant issues, so no veto power. The US and France will stay involved, but not forcefully, trying to figure out what's behind this and what leverage remains. For example, the US may threaten new weapons supplies to Taiwan. If any evidence is found that China was planning a sneak attack on Taiwan, the US may support Taiwan's declaration of independence.

结合国安理睬召闭会议,俄罗斯和英国——实际上统一——将高兴防止和平(但俄罗斯能够会应用这个时机,机密地向单方出售武器)。

作为抵触到场方,中国没有资历到场相干题目投票,因而没有反对权。美国和法国会持续到场。假如证据表现中国方案偷袭台湾,美国能够会支持台湾宣布独立。

In a week, it will be clear to everyone that it makes little sense for China to attack India (other than in isolated border skirmishes). The two countries are separated by enormous natural obstacles, don't have the ability to move a lot of troops and supplies abroad, but have a lot of weapons useful for defense, including active anti-ballistic defense programs. In other words, offensive operations won't accomplish much. Given the enormous damage caused to the economy with every day of a freshly declared war, China will either call it off quickly or clarify that it did not intend to start a full-scale war. In the meantime, cyber-warfare will intensify.

一周之内,情势就会阴暗。中国防御印度毫有意义。两个国度之间有着天然屏蔽断绝,无法保证后勤供给。防御举动不会发生几多结果。思索到停战每一天,经济就会蒙受宏大丧失,中国要么敏捷叫停,要么明白表现不计划发起片面和平。与此同时,网络战会加剧。

 

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